The European construction industry will suffer a setback in 2020, gradually recovering as early as 2021: this is the forecast that emerged at the 89th Euroconstruct Conference in Stockholm on June 12.
The health crisis and the impact of Covid-19 on the economy have created significant difficulties for the construction sector, which was already stagnating in previous years. However, according to data analyzed by Euricostruct, growth is expected as early as 2021, leading to normalization in 2022.
Eurocostruct estimates: the numbers of the Covid impact
While forecasts show a predisposition for recovery, a loss between 2020 and 2022 of about 350 billion euros in total construction output compared to 2019 levels is expected.
A decline was also expected in 2019: however, estimates were revised downward with the outbreak of the health emergency. After Covid, the contraction is about 1.5 trillion euros (equal to the 2015 level). The size of the contraction is similar to that caused by the 2009 financial market crisis.
Countries affected
All countries in the EC-19 area suffered a setback in 2020, although the impact of the crisis was different in the economies involved.
The worst numbers are from the United Kingdom and Ireland: here declines of 33% and 38%, respectively, are predicted. Far rosier forecasts Finland and Switzerland, which expect reductions of 1-2%. Bucking the trend are Portugal and Poland, which are expected to continue growing during the crisis.
Among the major economies in the European zone, only Germany will be able to contain the decline in the construction sector, estimated at -2.4 percent. For countries such as France, Italy, Spain and the Kingdom, contractions of between 12 and 33 percent are expected.
Starting in 2021, growth is expected everywhere, with a rebound estimated at 6 percent; however, growth will be less than the losses experienced in the current year. In 2022, the additional 3 percent boost could bring the construction sector back to 2018 levels.
